Which factors need to be improved for array models to correctly predict 'real-world' performance?

Bolko von Roedern

doi:10.1117/12.897191

21 September 2011 Which factors need to be improved for array models to correctly predict 'real-world' performance?

Bolko von Roedern

Proceedings Volume 8112, Reliability of Photovoltaic Cells, Modules, Components, and Systems IV; 811205 (2011) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.897191
Event: SPIE Solar Energy + Technology, 2011, San Diego, California, United States

Abstract

This paper poses the question how statistically varying data should be handled while the output of modeled real-world systems is sometimes interpreted by human preference? It asks the question whether modeled data or realworld data are of greater importance. This question is asked in the context of what is more important, having a model that correctly predicts real-world energy generation or cost of a PV array or the "typical" generation or cost for such array? Real-world performance can only be predicted within some uncertainty level. Are good average or individual values obtained when the real-world energy output or cost of a single system are predicted? Two or more input factors into a single output will also often lead to increased variation. The point is made that greater accuracy of modeled and experimental data may or may not result in deeper insight into the generation capability of a solar array. The answer to the question posed in the title of this contribution is: Be as accurate as possible, but always expect variation in both the calculated and experimental results and be cognizant of the difference between typical and actual values.

Citation Download Citation

Bolko von Roedern "Which factors need to be improved for array models to correctly predict 'real-world' performance?", Proc. SPIE 8112, Reliability of Photovoltaic Cells, Modules, Components, and Systems IV, 811205 (21 September 2011); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.897191

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