A model was developed for the prediction of turbulence in the marine surface layer. The model requires standard meteorological values of air temperature, air humidity, wind speed each from any given height from within the surface layer and the sea surface temperature. Internally, the model is controlled by the exchange coefficients for momentum, heat and water vapor. A variant using the surface roughness length instead of the drag coefficient has also been implemented. The micrometeorological output parameters of the model are used to predict vertical profiles of the refractive index -- to predict refractivity effects -- and profiles of the refractive index structure function parameter Cn2(z). The latter is the controlling parameters to calculate optical turbulence effects such as scintillation and blurring. Experimental data were obtained from images taken of a point source over a 19 km path over the North Sea at a frame rate of 25 Hz using a 3 - 5 micrometer infrared camera system. The images were analyzed for scintillation, blur and image dancing. Predicted and measured turbulence effects are compared.© (1996) COPYRIGHT SPIE--The International Society for Optical Engineering. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.