Bayesian paradox in homeland security and homeland defense

Tomasz Jannson; Thomas Forrester; Wenjian Wang

doi:10.1117/12.883323

2 June 2011 Bayesian paradox in homeland security and homeland defense

Tomasz Jannson, Thomas Forrester, Wenjian Wang

Proceedings Volume 8019, Sensors, and Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence (C3I) Technologies for Homeland Security and Homeland Defense X; 801911 (2011) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.883323
Event: SPIE Defense, Security, and Sensing, 2011, Orlando, Florida, United States

Abstract

In this paper we discuss a rather surprising result of Bayesian inference analysis: performance of a broad variety of sensors depends not only on a sensor system itself, but also on CONOPS parameters in such a way that even an excellent sensor system can perform poorly if absolute probabilities of a threat (target) are lower than a false alarm probability. This result, which we call Bayesian paradox, holds not only for binary sensors as discussed in the lead author's previous papers, but also for a more general class of multi-target sensors, discussed also in this paper. Examples include: ATR (automatic target recognition), luggage X-ray inspection for explosives, medical diagnostics, car engine diagnostics, judicial decisions, and many other issues.

Citation Download Citation

Tomasz Jannson, Thomas Forrester, and Wenjian Wang "Bayesian paradox in homeland security and homeland defense", Proc. SPIE 8019, Sensors, and Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence (C3I) Technologies for Homeland Security and Homeland Defense X, 801911 (2 June 2011); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.883323

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