Forecast of natural gas consumption in Jiangsu province based on combination forecast

Huanying Liu; Yulin Liu; Jiaxiang Yang; Zijun Men; Changhao Wang

doi:10.1117/12.2674810

2 May 2023 Forecast of natural gas consumption in Jiangsu province based on combination forecast

Huanying Liu, Yulin Liu, Jiaxiang Yang, Zijun Men, Changhao Wang

Proceedings Volume 12642, Second International Conference on Electronic Information Engineering, Big Data, and Computer Technology (EIBDCT 2023); 1264208 (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2674810
Event: Second International Conference on Electronic Information Engineering, Big Data and Computer Technology (EIBDCT 2023), 2023, Xishuangbanna, China

Abstract

Forecasting natural gas is an important link to maintain the balance between supply and demand of the natural gas industry and plan energy strategy. From the three main dimensions of economy, population and development, this paper selects six influencing factors: GDP, per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of urban residents, the proportion of secondary industry added value in GDP, the number of urban permanent residents and urbanization rate to analyze the prospects of natural gas energy. After pre-processing to improve the added value of the data, a grey forecasting model, a polynomial regression model and a partial least square method were used for modelling, and the three models were coupled to construct a comprehensive forecasting model. The model results show that: 1. The combined forecasting model has outstanding advantages. Under the premise of considering multiple influencing factors, the advantages of the three models are complementary, and the fitting error is 2.42%. 2. The forecast results show that natural gas consumption in Jiangsu Province will exceed 50 billion cubic meters in 2028, and reach 58.748 billion cubic meters in 2031, which is 187% of 2021, with an annual growth rate of more than 2 billion cubic meters.

Citation Download Citation

Huanying Liu, Yulin Liu, Jiaxiang Yang, Zijun Men, and Changhao Wang "Forecast of natural gas consumption in Jiangsu province based on combination forecast", Proc. SPIE 12642, Second International Conference on Electronic Information Engineering, Big Data, and Computer Technology (EIBDCT 2023), 1264208 (2 May 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2674810

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