Confidence interval for space debris population estimation based on radar beam fence

Zhengxin Song; Weidong Hu; Yong Tao; Wenxian Yu

doi:10.1117/12.774787

10 November 2007 Confidence interval for space debris population estimation based on radar beam fence

Zhengxin Song, Weidong Hu, Yong Tao, Wenxian Yu

Proceedings Volume 6795, Second International Conference on Space Information Technology; 67953H (2007) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.774787
Event: Second International Conference on Spatial Information Technology, 2007, Wuhan, China

Abstract

Estimating debris population is of great significance for assessing impact risk to spacecrafts, predicting the long-term growth potential and validating space debris models. A method of estimating the confidence interval for debris population using radar beam fence is proposed. The problem whether a debris object that may cross the beam fence, i.e. has large enough inclination and radar cross section, is actually detected is modeled as a (0-1) distribution. Using orbital altitudes measured, the average probability of crossing the beam fence is obtained. The confidence interval for debris population is estimated by the Central Limitation Theorem. Experimental results show the validity of the method.

Citation Download Citation

Zhengxin Song, Weidong Hu, Yong Tao, and Wenxian Yu "Confidence interval for space debris population estimation based on radar beam fence", Proc. SPIE 6795, Second International Conference on Space Information Technology, 67953H (10 November 2007); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.774787

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