The plots of monthly regional contribution to extreme positive and negative anomalies of surface air temperature in Moscow in 1949-2019 have been restored. Monthly large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns favoring superheated and supercooled air’s intrusions into the Moscow region in 1949-2019 were obtained. Drivers of supercooled air transfer in cold season are anticyclones centered over the Kola Peninsula, in warm season - cyclones centered over the middle and polar Urals. Transfer of superheated air in cold season is facilitated by cyclones centered over the south of the Scandinavian Peninsula, in the warm season - by anticyclones centered over middle Volga region.
Using satellite (NASA) measurements of brightness temperature of Arctic surface using Russian algorithm VASIA2, sea ice concentration (SIC) series in five main straits of Northern Sea Route, Kara Gate, Vilkitsky, Laptev/Sannikov, Long and Bering Straits, were reconstructed for summer-autumn period of navigation along Northern Sea Route in 1988- 2020. For the straits and all months of summer-autumn navigation, estimates of following values were obtained: average SIC in 2001-2010 and in 2011-2020, linear trends in the average monthly SIC in 1996-2020, expected years of ice-free conditions in 21st century, current (for 2020) probabilities of heavy, medium and light ice conditions, as well as estimates of extreme SICs in 2001-2020 and 1988-2000.
The degree of influence of the Aral-Caspian arid region on the territory of Russia along its southern border, as well as on the countries of near and far abroad is compared according to measurements of meteorological optical range in 2000- 2020, aerosol optical depth (AOD) of coarse aerosol at AERONET stations in recent two decades and AOD532 of dust aerosol from the CALIPSO satellite in 2006-2020.
Based on the database of the elemental and ionic composition of the tropospheric aerosol according to the data of aircraft measurements in the south of Western Siberia (SWS) in 1997-2020, taking into account the synoptic information about the air masses (AM) prevailing on sounding days and the results of the trajectory analysis, two main trajectorysynoptic samples with cases of the influence of the Aral-Caspian arid region (ACAR) on the SWS and with days without such influence. The chemical components-references of the ACAR aerosol were revealed: silicon, strontium, chromium, silver and magnesium - in the elemental composition, and in the water-soluble fraction - halide anions (fluorides, bromides and chlorides), ammonium and sodium cations. Days with the influence of ACAR are characterized by a 1.5-2- fold increase in the number concentration of aerosol particles with a size of 0.6-4 μm, which is associated with an increase in the volumetric concentration of aerosol in the atmospheric layer of 0.5-7 km by 1.5 times.
The fields of anomalies (relative to the corresponding averages in 1981-2010) of the heights of the geopotential surface at a level of 850 mb, z ', and of the near-surface air temperature, T', for composites of days with extremely high and extremely low sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies in June-November 1979-2017 in the main straits (Kara Gates, Vilkitsky, Laptev/Sannikov, Long and Bering) of the Northern Sea Route were calculated. The relationships between the extreme sea ice concentration anomalies in the straits with z' and with T' are analyzed. It is shown that extremely high SIC anomalies in the NSR straits occur at the margins of the areas of low-mobile long (up to 12 days) living anticyclonic z' anomalies.
Based on the previously proposed comprehensive backward-trajectory methodology for studying the patterns of transboundary transport of aerosol-gas air impurities originated from desert regions of Central Asia, the impact of the Aral-Caspian arid zone on Tomsk region and on the background area of the Ob region in the south of the Novosibirsk Oblast in 2015-2016 is assessed. In the first, we used the dataset of lidar sounding of the aerosol scattering ratio at the High-Altitude Sounding Station of Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences. In the second, the dataset of regular aircraft aerosol measurements over Karakansky Bor (pine forest) on the right southern bank of Novosibirsk reservoir is used. Approbation of backward-trajectory technique for the datasets of 2015-2016 showed a significant effect of the Aral-Caspian arid region on the aerosol load of the troposphere of the south of Western Siberia.
Based on measurements of brightness temperatures in the microwave range from NASA satellites using VASIA2 retrieval algorithm, the daily sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Vilkitsky Strait was reconstructed for all months of summer-autumn navigation along the Northern Sea Route for 1987-2020 period. Variations and linear trends of the monthly SIC, the probability density of the daily SIC and the variation of the SIC probability for three ranges (0-34%, 35-69% and 69-100%) of SIC reconstructed using VASIA2 and NASA Team2 (NT2) algorithms were calculated and analyzed. It was found out that VASIA2 algorithm estimates the SIC in its range of 30-100% more accurately than NT2 algorithm, and so it does it for probabilities of medium and severe (by the SIC) ice conditions at the end of the summer-autumn navigation period on the Northern Sea Route.
The data of measurements of meteorological optical range (MOR), relative and specific air humidity at ROSHYDROMET meteorological stations Vnukovo (WMO 27518) and Sheremetyevo (WMO 27515) at the same names Moscow’s airports in 1973-2020 are analyzed. Using NOAA HYSPLIT_4 trajectory model and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis gridded meteorological data, an array of about 420 thousand 7-days backward trajectories of air particles that arrived in atmospheric boundary layer above the meteorological stations during the hours of MOR measurements was modeled. The Concentration Weighted Method was used to reconstruct the seasonal fields of the mean contribution of long-range transport to MOR at the stations in 1973-2020. The influence of long-range air transport on MOR and specific air humidity in Moscow Region and indifference of relative air humidity to the air transport are shown.
Experiments for the retrieval of the high-detailed spatial NO2 distribution in the troposphere using measurements of the GSA instrument onboard satellites of Resurs-P series were performed in 2016-2017. The authors developed an algorithm to obtain the tropospheric NO2 2D distribution with the horizontal spatial resolution reaching 2,4 km for the first time at the world level and provided on a grid with a step of 120 m. The high spatial resolution of the NO2 space measurements allowed the identification of local sources of NO2 pollution and their plumes from space observations. To validate the fine structures detected in the NO2 fields of GSA/Resurs-P, we perform comparisons with chemical transport models. The paper presents preliminary results of a comparison with a new model which is based on a numerical-asymptotic approach. The comparison was performed for NO2 observations on September 29, 2016 over Hebei province, the North China Plain. We propose, in particular, a new efficient approach using this model to obtain estimates of emissions from local anthropogenic sources based on GSA/Resurs-P observational data. To validate the coarse structures in the GSA/Resurs-P NO2 field, in this paper, we perform comparisons of our data based on spectral imagery of Tokyo region, Japan, taken in March-April 2017 with observations of OMI/Aura and TROPOMI/Sentinel-5P. The comparison confirmed the reliability of the GSA NO2 fields in general.
Using measurements of the GSA instrument onboard the Resurs-P satellite, the authors performed an experiment for the retrieval of the high-detailed spatial NO2 distribution in the troposphere. The authors developed an algorithm to obtain the tropospheric NO2 2D distribution with the horizontal spatial resolution reaching 2.4 km for the first time at the world level and provided on a grid with a step of 120 m. The high spatial resolution of the NO2 space measurements for the first time allowed the identification of local sources of NO2 pollution and their plumes. Earlier, we compared our large-scale NO2 distribution structures with measurements from another satellite instrument, OMI, and obtained a reasonable agreement between the NO2 fields taken by the two systems on September 29, 2016 for Hebei province, the North China Plain, which is the most NO2 polluted area in the world. For the validation of fine structures detected in the NO2 fields of GSA/Resurs-P, we are developing methods based on comparisons with numerical models. The paper presents preliminary results of comparisons of the GSA/Resurs-P tropospheric NO2 measurements with simulations performed by models describing the transport of impurities in the atmosphere with different accuracy.
For all days of 1948-2017 the 10-day backward trajectories of air particles arriving in the convective (mixed) layer of the atmosphere over Moscow were calculated using the NOAA HYSPLIT_4 trajectory model and NCAE/NCAR Reanalysis. A total of 75000 backward trajectories were calculated. By the daily precipitation data of the Roshydromet weather station VDNKh (Moscow, Russia) the fields of the average contribution of potential sources to precipitation in Moscow were reconstructed for the warm (April-September) and the cold (October-March) seasons of the year using the PWT (precipitation weighted trajectory) method. Regions that contribute to different precipitation in Moscow in the warm and cold seasons were identified by the fields obtained. An attempt was made to reconstruct the field of the absolute contribution of the potential source to the total precipitation in Moscow in 1948-2017 in the cold and warm seasons.
According to the data of the AERONET Ussuriysk site for 2004-2017 and modeling of 10-days backward trajectories of air particle using the NOAA HYSPLIT_4 trajectory model, the potential sources of four fractions of aerosols in the range of particle radii from 0.05 to 2.24 μm for the South of the Russian Far East are determined. The highest volume concentrations of aerosols in the specified particle size range in Ussuriysk are related to the transboundary transport of air masses from the PRC region near the Yellow Sea. The dynamics of the structure of large-scale atmospheric circulation is analyzed against the background of which the polluted air masses from this region are transported to the territory of the Russian Far East.
Using the NOAA HYSPLIT_4 trajectory model, 25500 10-day backward trajectories of air particles arriving into the Moscow air basin in 1948-2017 at an altitude of 100 m were modeled. For each trajectory, the path and the distance along the large circle, traversed by the air particle for 1, 3, 6 and 10 days before arrival in Moscow, are calculated. Mean paths and distances, mean velocities and air particle heights for the indicated trajectory durations in all seasons are calculated. The average seasonal "virtual" trajectories are calculated. Seasonal features of calculated parameters and average "virtual" trajectories are analyzed.
A.M. Obukhov IAP of RAS performs regular measurements of the integral content of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) by the MAX-DOAS method at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station (ZSS) since 2009. ZSS is located to the West from Moscow and is in background air mass of Central Russian about 80% of time, while polluted air of Moscow megacity cover it in about 20% of time. We calculate the fields of the average contribution of potential sources on the integral content of NO2 on ZSS using the concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) method. The NO2 measurements performed in cloudless sky were used for the analysis. Five-day backward trajectories of air particles arriving into the convective boundary layer of the atmosphere above ZSS were calculated using the NOAA HYSPLIT_4 trajectory model and the NCEP GDAS1.0 meteorological variables data fields. The differences of the fields of contribution of potential sources in warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) seasons of the year are analyzed.
Using satellite sea ice concentration (SIC) data in the Arctic, a composite SIC series was retrieved for the southwestern part of the Kara Sea in the region of Novaya Zemlya ice massif in November (the month of the end of intense marine navigation alone the Northern Sea Route) in 1978-2015. For all days of November 1978-2015 5-day backward trajectories arriving in the region of the Novaya Zemlya ice massif were calculated. The relationships between the variations of the SIC in the region of the Novaya Zemlya ice massif and long-range transport of air masses and the structure of large-scale atmospheric circulation are analyzed.
A joint analysis of 10% of the lowest daily surface air temperatures (SAT) in Moscow in June 1971-2016 and corresponding 5-day backward trajectories of elementary air particles calculated using NOAA HYSPLIT_4 trajectory model was carried out. The most probable paths of cold outbreaks to Moscow have been revealed by the cluster analysis. The weighted trajectory method was used to localize the regions where the air masses bringing 10% of the lowest SAT anomalies in Moscow in June were transported from. The structure of large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with cold air outbreaks is revealed.
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (OIAP) of Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) performs regular measurements of the integral tropospheric content of such reactive gases as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and formaldehyde (HCHO) by the MAX-DOAS method at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station (ZSS) since 2009. For each average hourly gas contents in the troposphere at ZSS in 2009-2017 the backward trajectories of the air particles were calculated using the trajectory model NOAA HYSPLIT_4 and the grid meteorological data NOAA NCEP GDAS0p5. Using the backward trajectories, the PSCF (potential source contribution function) method was used to calculate detailed (resolution 0.1°×0.1°) fields of probability of the transport to ZSS of air masses which are extremely polluted with formaldehyde and nitrogen dioxide from a potential source. Similarly, using the CWT (concentration weighted trajectory) method, detailed fields of the average contribution of the potential source to the tropospheric NO2 and HCHO contents at ZSS were reconstructed. The relative influence of the Moscow megacity and the industrialized region in the east of the Moscow Oblast on the contamination of the lower troposphere of the Western Moscow Oblast with nitrogen dioxide and formaldehyde is specified.
For all days of measurements in 2002–2015 of volume concentration of aerosols at the AERONET Tomsk/Tomsk-22 station an array of 10-day backward trajectories of air parcels arriving in Tomsk into seven layers of the troposphere with heights in the range of 0.5–5.0 km is calculated using the trajectory model NOAA HYSPLIT_4. For the three fractions of the aerosol with particle sizes < 1.0 μm, 1.0–2.5 μm, 2.5–5.0 μm and their sum (< 5.0 μm), the field of capacity of the potential sources of aerosols of these fractions for southern Siberia is determined by the CWT (concentration weighted trajectory) method using the backward trajectory array. The analysis is carried out taking into account the processes both the scavenging of the aerosols with precipitation and the dry deposition. Trajectories arriving at different heights were analyzed taking into account the weight coefficients proportional to the backward light scattering coefficients of an aerosols at corresponding heights for warm and cold seasons in Western Siberia. The most capable (in unit of volume concentration μm3 /μm2 ) potential sources of these fractions for southern Siberia are located above North Africa, Eastern Siberia, Central Asia and the Dzhungarian desert in the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region of China.
Based on the data of long-term measurements at 23 meteorological stations in the Russian part of the Lake Baikal basin the probabilities of daily precipitation with different intensity and their contribution to the total precipitation are estimated. Using the trajectory model HYSPLIT_4 for each meteorological station for the period 1948–2016 the 10-day backward trajectories of air parcels, the height of these trajectories and distribution of specific humidity along the trajectories are calculated. The average field of power of potential sources of daily precipitation (less than 10 mm) for all meteorological stations in the Russian part of the Lake Baikal basin was obtained using the CWT (concentration weighted trajectory) method. The areas have been identified from which within 10 days water vapor can be transported to the Lake Baikal basin, as well as regions of the most and least powerful potential sources. The fields of the mean height of air parcels trajectories and the mean specific humidity along the trajectories are compared with the field of mean power of potential sources.
For summer (June–July–August) days in 1949–2016, using the NOAA trajectory model HYSPLIT_4, the 5-day backward trajectories of the air parcels (elementary air particles) were calculated. Using the daily surface air temperatures (SAT) in summer in Moscow in 1949–2016 and the results of the backward trajectories modeling by PSCF (potential source contribution function) and CWT (concentration weighted trajectories) methods the regions where the air masses most probably hit to before its arrive into the Moscow region at the days of 20%, 10%, 5% and 2% of the strongest positive and negative anomalies of SAT in summer in Moscow. For composites of days with SAT in summer in Moscow above 90th and below the 10th percentile of the distribution function of the SAT, the field of the anomaly of atmospheric pressure at sea level relative to 1981–2010 climatology and the field of average SAT in Eurasia north of 30° N are calculated. The peculiarities of the fields associated with the strong positive and negative anomalies of SAT in summer seasons in Moscow are identified. The fields of potential sources of air parcels, mean air temperature on the path of the movement of air parcels and the average height of the backward trajectory for days with strong anomalies of SAT in summer in Moscow are compared. Possible atmospheric circulation drivers of the highest and lowest anomalies of SAT in winter in Moscow are found out.
Time series of winter daily sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies in the north-east, central and south-east part of the Barents Sea (BS) for the entire 1979–2015 period, as well as for two sub periods, 1979–1999 and 2005–2015, the latter characterized by lowest anomalies of SIC in BS were calculated. Joint analysis of the data on SIC and daily anomalies of surface air temperature (SAT) in winter in Moscow for the 1979–1999 and 2005–2015 periods was carried out. Correlation coefficients between the time series of daily SAT anomalies in Moscow and SIC in the specified BS regions for 1979–1999 and 2005–2015 were calculated. Averaged for 1979–1999 and 2005–2015 variations of daily anomalies of SIC in the south-east BS region and variation of daily SAT anomalies in Moscow were calculated and compared. Correlation functions between the variation of winter SIC in the south-east BS and the variation of SAT in Moscow for the lead/lag range −30…30 days for 1979–1999 and 2005–2015 periods were calculated. Analysis of the fields of geopotential height (GPH) anomaly at 850 mb and SAT anomaly in Eurasia in 2005–2015 relative to 1979–1999 for composites of the days with strong SIC anomaly in winter (lower 10 percentile of probability density function of SIC in winter) in the south-east part of BS was carried out. The influence of the strong negative daily SIC anomalies in the south-east of BS on formation of GPH and SAT anomalies over East Europe was revealed and regions where GPH maxima and SAT minima localized were determined.
According to measurements in 2002-2015 of concentrations of ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulfate and natural silicates in aerosol samples with particles in the range of 1-2 μm in diameter at the Zvenigorod scientific station (55.7° N, 36.8° E) of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences and simulation of backward trajectories of air parcels using the trajectory model NOAA HYSPLIT_4 by means of CWT (concentration weighted trajectory) method, the average fields of capacity (in unit of concentration) of potential sources of these admixtures and their sum for the west of Moscow region were obtained. The patterns of large-scale atmospheric circulation, which favoring the transfer of these admixtures from their regions of the most probable potential sources to the western Moscow region, are analyzed.
Using the trajectory model NOAA HYSPLIT_4 for all days of the period 1986–2016 68000 direct 5-day trajectories of air parcels for starting at heights of 0.1 km and 1 km above control points in the arid region of the south of Russia are simulated. The fields of mean probability of air transport to the Moscow region from arid territories for start heights above the control points of 0.1 km and 1 km for all seasons and separately for the seasons for the period 1986–2016 of air particles transfer are calculated. Probabilities of air transfer to the Moscow region and other regions of Russia are estimated. Long-term series of average monthly probabilities of the air transport from arid lands at southern Russia to Moscow region, their trends and the nature of the interannual and seasonal variability of the transport probabilities at altitudes of 0.1 km and 1 km in 1986–2016 are analyzed. The average durations of air transport from arid regions of southern Russia to the Moscow region for different seasons at both start heights 0.1 and 1 km are estimated.
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