Mr. Zhenyao Li Profile

Zhenyao Li

at Tsinghua Univ

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Proceedings Article | 23 August 2022 Paper

A VAR analysis for the impact of Covid-19 on egg price fluctuation in Henan province in China

Zhenyao Li

Proceedings Volume 12330, 1233017 (2022) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2646331

KEYWORDS: Agriculture, Analytical research, Statistical modeling, Statistical analysis, Natural disasters, Factor analysis, Databases

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The outbreak of the Covid-19 caused the emergence of many related pandemic prevention policies, which evidently influenced the demand and supply sides of the agricultural products and may therefore make the relative products’ price fluctuate. This paper chooses the egg price in Henan province in China as a detailed situation to do the empirical research by using vector autoregression model (VAR), and try to find out the relationship between egg price volatility and the number of indigenous confirmed Covid-19 cases, Granger causality Wald test is also used in order to test the causal relationship between these two factors. We find that the fluctuation of egg price in Henan province was not positively related to the number of confirmed pandemic cases, but has the positive relationship with the supply of the eggs. Our findings suggest local governments should place much emphasis on ensuring stability of the supply side of the agricultural products in times of crisis.

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